Bounce Back Seasons

Here are a few players who I think will have a bounce back season this year from a possibly disappointing season last year:

Catcher
-Jason Kendall – He was down in every statistical category from 2004, and I attribute it to playing 150 games and the switch from the NL to the AL. I think he will be back to the normal Kendall (.300, 5 homers, 60 rbi, 80 runs)

-Johnny Estrada – He was hurt most of the season, and I think the trade from Atlanta to Arizona will be good for him. Provided he stays healthy, I see closer to a .300 average, 50 runs, 10 homers, 70 rbi.

First Basemen
-Todd Helton – I hate putting a guy who hit .320 last year on this list, but everyone is talking about how bad a season Helton had last year. His 20 homers and 79 rbi were the lowest of his career, but I fully expect him to be back to his usual, .340 with 35 homers and 120 rbi.

-Justin Morneau – In his first full season as a starter, he only hit .239 with a .304 on-base percentage. With the addition of Luis Castillo, and hopefully a full season from Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart, I can see 25 homers, 80-90 rbi, and a .275 batting average.

Second Basemen

-Mark Loretta – He was injured for a portion of the season, and his batting average dropped 55 points from 2004. But he is moving from the pitcher friendly PETCO Park to Fenway Park. His numbers should be back to something like .310, 10+ homers, 75 rbi.

-Rickie Weeks – He only hit .239 last year, but it was his first season in the bigs, and he played much of the second half with a messed up thumb. He is poised for a 20-20 season and in the future could be a 30-30 guy.

Third Basemen

-Hank Blalock – His on-base, slugging, and batting averages all dropped from 2004, but he is still playing in Arlington, so he should be getting another 25-30 homers with 90-100 rbi. Hopefully he can draw a few more walks and strikeout less – that would bump his average back to .280ish

-Mike Lowell – Another guy moving from a pitcher friendly park to Fenway. With the lineup around him, he should be primed for a season with 25 homers and 90 rbi. His average should also bounce back to somewhere around .275

Short Stop

-Edgar Renteria – He is moving back to the NL where he had his most productive seasons, and the amount of errors he had last year is very uncharacteristic of him.

-J.J. Hardy – Another sleeper off that young Brewers team, J.J. struggled mightily through the first half of the season, but hit .308 through the second half. I really can see him at 15-20 homers, and a .280-.290 batting average.

Outfield

-Ichiro Suzuki – Another guy who hit over .300 but is still on the list. He had the lowest output of hits in a season for his 5 year MLB career, but he is still Ichiro and will be back to .330 with 30 stolen bases and 115 runs.

-Luis Gonzalez – His .271 batting average last year was 14 points lower than his career average. The D-Backs have surrounded him with quality young position players, and he should be back to .290 with 25 homers and 90 rbi.

-Vernon Wells – With the upgrades that Toronto has made in the offseason, he will have many more rbi opportunities and won’t have as much pressure on his shoulders this year. He should be at .300/30/100.

-Carlos Beltran – Another guy who, like Wells, has found himself surrounded by quality position players and doesn’t have to be the superstar of the team. He will probably be batting second, and will score well over 100 runs. He should be back at .290/25/100/30 stolen bases.

Pitchers

-Jake Westbrook – He pitched too well to warrant his 4.49 ERA with only a .500 record. I think he will be somewhere closer to the 3.38 ERA of 2004 with more than 15 wins.

-Matt Clement – He started out hot, but after he was hit in the head by a Carl Crawford line drive, he was not the same pitcher. I expect him to be back to the first half Clement and have somewhere around a 3.70 ERA with somewhere around 15 wins.

-Curt Schilling – His repaired ankle should hold up this year and he should be back to striking out 200+ batters and having a 3.50 ERA.

-Eric Gagne – Injury only allowed him to earn 8 saves last year, and he should be back to his old self and another 40+ saves.

-Jason Schmidt – His ERA last year was almost a half run higher than his career ERA. His strikeouts dropped by 85 last year, but he wasn’t healthy most of the year. I can very much expect him to be back to 200+ Ks, a sub-3 ERA, and 15+ wins.

2006 Standings

Here's how I think things will shake out (with last year's record in parenthesis).

AL East
1. New York Yankees (95-67) -> They are like the Braves, once they stop winning the division, I will start picking against them. They had enough pitching last year despite what everybody was saying, and they still have Mariano Rivera.
2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) -> It is still up in the air of how Josh Beckett will do in the American League, and how Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke will bounce back from injuries last year. I think they will all do fine, and Mike Lowell will have a bounce back year as well. I would pick them, but it is just so hard to go against the team that has won the division for the past 10+ years.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82) -> They will finish with a better record than last year, but that won't matter since they are playing against the Red Sox and Yankees. All that money for another 3rd place finish, sounds like the New York Mets...
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (67-95) -> I am not nuts I swear. I think with as much young talent as they have it will be hard for them not to jump over the Orioles.
5. Baltimore Orioles (74-88) -> Leo Mazzone will be good for the pitching staff, but they just loaded up on washed up veterans over the off-season and I don't know if Brian Roberts' last year was a fluke or if he is for real.

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox (99-63) -> They had the best record in the AL last year, and their rotation got BETTER. Barring injuries, which is what every team needs to worry about, they should have another solid season and compete for the AL pennant.
2. Cleveland Indians (93-69) -> I can see them with another 90 win season and compete with Boston and the AL West loser for the Wild Card. I love their young lineup and their pitching staff is solid. I don't like the fact that they lost 2 key bullpen guys, but they did have the best bullpen ERA in the Majors last year so they should still be solid. Andy Marte will take the job from Aaron Boone by the All-Star break - I guarantee it.
3. Minnesota Twins (83-79) -> I love Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker and they have Joe Nathan and Johan Santana still, but I am not so sure about their starting lineup. Can they stay healthy? Can Rondell White still produce? Is Tony Bautista still alive? So many questions.
4. Detroit Tigers (71-91) -> Question mark at the closer position, and how will their rotation do this year? I like Bonderman and I think Verlander will be solid, but can Kenny Rogers still perform, and what is he gonna do about them pesky camera men this year? I like Granderson in center, and Magglio should be healthy this year. Inge is coming into his own, and I think next year they will be in the hunt for the Wild Card for a while. But that is next year...
5. Kansas City Royals (56-106) -> Who will have the worst record in the Majors this year - the Kansas City Royals. I think they will be the only team with 100 losses again this year. They just aren't very good.

AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (88-74) -> I have been back and forth on this one all off-season. I love the addition of Esteban Loaiza and if Frank Thomas gives them 100 games it will be a success. Huston Street was already amazing, and now he is adding a change up. I like their offense and they have the deepest starting rotation in the bigs.
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of Unites States of the World (95-67) -> The addition of Jeff Weaver is what made me think of making them the winners of the division. But I think it is the aging Darin Erstad and Garret Anderson that will be their downfall.
3. Texas Rangers (79-83) -> I think this will be the most competitive division in baseball, and Texas will finish above .500, but not far enough above .500 to win the division or the Wild Card. They have a tremendous lineup, but they should've gotten PITCHING for Alfonso Soriano, not more hitting. Millwood has been solid for his whole career, but he may not have a great season in Arlington.
4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) -> I don't think they will lose 90 games this year, but they still won't finish above .500. I love Felix Hernandez, but they are bringing him along slowly, so he won't have the impact this year that he does next year. I also cannot believe Jamie Moyer is still hanging in there. He's gotta break down sometime.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (90-72) -> Until someone beats them, I am picking them - End of Story.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) -> They have the hitting, and they have the rotation, but I don't think Tom Gordon will be quite as good as Billy Wagner has been.
3. New York Mets (83-79) -> See Toronto Blue Jays
4. Washington Nationals (81-81) -> They won't finish above .500, but they won't finish below the Marlins. Alfonso Soriano won't be nearly as good in Washington and RFK as he did in Texas.
5. Florida Marlins (83-79) -> The fire sale will have them in last in the East for a couple of years, and then back in the World Series. It just happens that way. Miguel Cabrera doesn't have enough around him, and Dontrelle Willis (who I think is overrated by the way) won't have enough help in the rotation and bullpen. Just too much youth.

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) -> I don't think they will get 100 wins, but they will still win the division. They didn't gain much, but they didn't lose much either. They still have Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Isringhausen.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) -> Before you call me a homer, read what I have to say about the rest of the division. They have the best farm system in the majors with the exception of Anaheim, and JJ Hardy was hot after the All-Star break. If Ben Sheets can stay healthy, they will be tough to beat.
3. Houston Astros (89-73) -> They lost Roger Clemens for who knows how long. And they don't have enough hitting. Their rotation has a lot of question marks after Oswalt and Pettite and Backe. Brad Lidge is the reason they will finish ahead of the rest of the teams.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) -> I think the addition of Sean Casey is a great one. I like their young rotation, and lineup, but their bullpen is a question mark.
5. Chicago Cubs (79-83) -> I don't think the addition of Juan Pierre will mean as much as everyone thinks. He only has a career .355 OBP. I also think Mark Prior will break down again. Him and Kerry Wood. I like Dempster as the closer, but I wonder how much confidence Dusty Baker has in him.
6. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) -> No pitching. They have enough offense, but that will not be enough. No closer, and only 1 quality starter (Aaron Harang).

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (71-91) -> I like their off-season additions better than any other team in the weakest divsion in baseball. They have a solid pitching staff and are getting Eric Gagne back. That should be enough to overtake the Padres.
2. San Diego Padres (82-80) -> They didn't lose much, but they still have trouble scoring runs. I don't know how the rotation after Jake Peavy will fare. Chris Young will benefit moving from Arlington to PETCO, but Chan Ho Park wasn't too successful after returning from injury last year.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (77-85) -> The addition of Orlando Hudson will really help Brandon Webb and the rest of the rotation. I don't know if El Duque will be as successful in the NL as he was in the AL, but having Miguel Batista in the rotation should be a plus.
4. San Francisco Giants (75-87) -> I only put them ahead of the Rockies because Jason Schmidt is coming back from injury. Barry Bonds will play in 50 games, maybe. He'll probably retire during Spring Training, and I would be very happy. They just got older in the off-season, except for the addition of Matt Morris. I like Matt Cain and Brad Hennessey and Noah Lowery, but I don't think they have enough offense.
5. Colorado Rockies (67-95) -> I like their young team, which is why I will pick them to finish much higher NEXT year. But this is this year, and they still don't have much in the pitching department. Their hitting will keep them in games, and Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook will be much improved, but they don't have much in terms of pitching after that. Brian Fuentes is still good at keeping hitters off balance with his funky delivery, but Jose Mesa is going to get lit up in Coors.

2006 Sleepers

A Position-By-Position Look at some of the players who may help you down the road, yet you wouldn't think of.

Catchers

D. Ardoin/Y. Torrialba (Col) - Whoever starts for the Rockies would be playing 81 games at Coors, that is enough to make them a sleeper in my book.
J. Valentin (Cin) - Take his production from last year, and spread it over 450 ABs, that puts him at 25-30 homers and a .285 batting average. That is solid production from the catcher's spot.
R. Doumit (Pit) - He only hit .255 last year, but with the fact that he didn't play but part time last year, and the lineup they have put around him he should be primed for a breakout year - provided he gets the starting job.
D. Navarro (LAD) - He hit .273 in an August call-up. He is gonna have the starting job this year and they have a pretty decent lineup around him. I expect .280, 10-15 homers and 70 rbi.
J. Mathis (LAA) - Anaheim knew that they had something special in Mathis, so they let Benjie Molina go. While he is a defensive specialist, he still has some pop and I expect a solid freshman campaign from this kid.

First Basemen

P. Fielder (Mil) - He may not be much of a sleeper with everyone picking him to be a ROY Candidate (me included), but he is still worth mentioning. I am expecting 25-30 homers and upwards of 100 RBI while hitting .285.
K. Youkilis (Bos) - He may not be as productive as I would hope with the addition of J.T. Snow, but Youkilis is still the Greek God of Walks. He isn't going to hit for too much power, which is something you look for in a corner infielder, but he will get on base which would translate nicely into some runs scored.
M. Jacobs (Fla) - This guy hit .300 with 11 homers in only 100 at bats! This guy has some pop.
R. Shealy (Col) - Hit .330 while Todd Helton was on the shelf last year, and the Rockies are so high on him that they are going to play him in the outfield during the spring and possibly platoon him in right field with Brad Hawpe.

Second Basemen

R. Weeks (Mil) - Played much of last year with a messed up right thumb, which contributed to his low batting average. I still expect him to have a solid year 20/20 possibly with 30/30 potential.
M. Ellis (Oak) - Only 2 0r 3 players in the majors hit better after the all-star break than Ellis - and he hit 12 of his 13 homers after the break as well. He hit .316 last year and I see no reason for him to hit below .300 again this year.
I. Kinsler (Tex) - He is replacing Alfonso Soriano, but his production will still be solid. He has mucho mucho protection around him in the lineup and will be a great source of runs and steals this year.
H. Kendrick (LAA) - He won't start in the bigs this year, but if you are looking for a great keeper or September call-up he could be your man at the two-bag. Also if Adam Kennedy has some issues early in the year, Kendrick could get the call much sooner.

Short Stop

J.J. Hardy (Mil) - He started off slowly last year, but this is a guy who missed much of his Triple-A season with arm surgery. He hit .308 after the break last year and I can very well see that production carry over to this year.
H. Ramirez (Fla) - He's been an uber-prospect for a couple of years with Boston, but blocked from entry to the majors. When they dealt him to Florida his value skyrocketed. Keep him in mind in keeper leagues.
B. Wood (LAA) - Another guy like Kendrick who is blocked, but may enter later on in the season. He has an amazing bat, and will be a major player for years to come.
R. Cedeno (ChC) - The starting job is all but his, all he has to worry about is Neifi Perez, but Ronnie has a quick bat and could be a great source of steals this season.

Third Base

R. Zimmerman (Was) - Sleeper of the Year. He hit .397 last year, and was only drafted in June. This kid is amazing and is even being compared to Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen defensively. He is that good.
E. Encarnacion (Cin) - He only hit .230, but he is playing in Cincy with no pressure. I can see him upping his numbers considerably this year and being a pleasant surprise for anyone who takes the chance on him.
A. Marte (Cle) - Another uber-prospect that got dealt in the offseason. When Aaron Boone stumbles, and he will, Marte will be thrown into the lineup and will succeed. He is a guy who, down the road, will be hitting 25 homers and 100 RBI.

Outfield

C. Sullivan (Col) - While he won't be a big power guy, he still hit .294 in 139 games last season and would be a good source of steals and runs, especially in deep leagues.
M. Murton (ChC) - .320 in 51 games is worthy of being on my list. Another guy who would be a good source of runs and unlike Sullivan, would be a run producer - especially in the Cubs lineup.
C. Duffy (Pit) - .341 in 39 games and will probably lead off for the much upgraded Pirates lineup. I can see him getting 100 runs this year if he is healthy. Probably not a big homer guy, but he will get on base consistantly.
J. Rodriguez (StL) - .295 in 56 games last year, and if he can win the starting Left Field job he would be a great addition to a fantasy lineup. He is another guy who could get a good 15-20 homers with regular play.
B. Anderson (CWS) - The Chi Sox dealt away Aaron Rowand because they feel that Anderson is Major League ready. He didn't hit too well in his cup of coffee with the White Sox last year, but given a full season he could hit .275.
R. Church (Was) - I think this guy coulda been the Rookie of the Year last year if he woulda played the whole season. Given 500 at-bats, he could be a 15-20 homer guy with 80-90 RBI.

Pitchers

A. Cook (Col) - Yes I am putting a Rockies pitcher on the sleeper list. He came back from injury after the All-Star break and was very good. He finished the season at 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA. That is phenomenal for a Rockies pitcher. And for those who are wondering, he had a 3.76 ERA at Coors field last year...
R. Madson (Phi) - He was a set-up guy last year but this year he wants to start. He has great stuff and the makeup to be a solid big league starter. He was a solid starter in the minors and I think it will translate into success in the Major League rotation.
F. Cabrera (Cle) - Cleveland's closer of the future. A 1.47 ERA in limited work last year has him ready for this season. If Wickman goes down, this is the guy who is going to get the saves for Cleveland and will also be a great source of strikeouts.
T. Gordon (Phi) - He has closed before and I see him having another good year with Philadelphia.
B. Bowyer/J. Borowski (Fla) - The winner of the Florida closer battle would be a good source of saves this year. Bowyer is the closer of the future, but he may need a little more work and they might not want to thrust him into the pressure packed closer role. Borowski has closed before so he may be in the lead to get the job.